BGC Highlights Growing Risks of Unlicensed Betting on Premier League Matches

The Betting and Gaming Council has released fresh projections showing illegal operators could capture as much as £800 million in wagers on Premier League fixtures throughout the current season, with early figures already pointing to £20 million placed on unlicensed platforms during the opening weekend alone.

Those estimates place weekly activity on unauthorised sites at between £15 million and £20 million once the season settles into its regular rhythm, and the trade body expects the annual total to climb toward £1 billion by the 2027/28 campaign once the new 25 percent tax on remote betting comes into force.

Tax Adjustments and Their Projected Effects

Remote Gaming Duty is scheduled to rise to 40 percent in April 2026, and the BGC links this increase directly to the risk that more customers will shift toward offshore platforms that operate outside the regulated UK market; the combination of higher duties and the forthcoming 25 percent levy on remote betting is described as a key driver that could push additional volume offshore by the later years of the decade.

August 2026 marks the point at which these tax changes begin to influence operator planning, and the council’s forecast incorporates both the immediate season and the longer-term trajectory once the full set of duty adjustments takes effect.

Breakdown of the Season’s Early Data

Opening-weekend stakes on illegal sites reached £20 million according to the figures released by the BGC, while average weekends are projected to generate £15 million to £20 million; when these weekly numbers are extended across the full Premier League calendar the cumulative total reaches the £800 million mark for the 2026/27 season.

The same modelling shows the annual figure expanding further once the 25 percent remote-betting tax is active, pushing the total toward £1 billion in 2027/28 because the higher cost base is expected to encourage a larger share of activity to migrate beyond the reach of UK licensing requirements.

Context Around Duty Increases

The April 2026 adjustment to Remote Gaming Duty forms part of a broader package that also includes the 25 percent rate scheduled for later implementation, and the BGC presents these changes as the central variables behind the projected growth in unlicensed betting on top-flight English football.

Observers note that the duty increases apply specifically to remote betting activity, leaving land-based operations under a different tax framework, and the council’s analysis therefore focuses on the online channel where Premier League wagers are most commonly placed.

Implications for Market Structure

Under the current trajectory the share of Premier League betting that moves outside the licensed sector is set to expand steadily, and the BGC’s modelling indicates the offshore total could double within two seasons once both the 40 percent Remote Gaming Duty and the additional 25 percent levy are in place.

The figures released in August 2026 therefore serve as an early indicator of how tax policy adjustments may reshape the distribution of betting volume between regulated operators and those that fall outside UK oversight.

Conclusion

The Betting and Gaming Council’s forecast supplies a clear quantitative picture of the scale of illegal Premier League betting under present conditions and under the tax regime that will apply from 2027/28 onward; the data show an immediate £800 million exposure this season rising toward £1 billion annually as duty rates increase, with the April 2026 Remote Gaming Duty adjustment identified as a pivotal factor in that shift. BGC forecast on illegal Premier League betting (August 2026) provides the source material for these projections, and the council continues to monitor weekly activity on unlicensed sites as the season progresses.